Republican Presidential Primary Turnout: Trump vs Bush

With higher turnout, 2020's primary electorate looks familiar

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Compared to 2004, another year that featured a Republican president in a lightly-contested primary and a contested Democratic primary race, turnout has been up across the board. -- 63% of the votes cast in this year’s primaries have been on the Democratic side, which,...

Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump. -- The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results. -- This suggests that pollsters have...

Trump-Pence: The Ticket That Seems (Almost) Certain for a 2020 Reprise

Dear Readers: Join us today at noon eastern for an online panel on the 2020 Veepstakes. Marquette University’s Julia Azari; the Washington Post’s David Byler; VP expert Joel Goldstein; and the Brennan Center’s Ted Johnson will discuss Joe Biden’s possible choices, the electoral importance of running mates, and more. The...

Why 2020’s Third Party Share Should Be Lower Than 2016

Unified parties, lack of strong alternatives among reasons to suspect major party candidates will get a higher percentage of the vote than four years ago

Dear Readers: We wanted to let you know about two upcoming University of Virginia Center for Politics events. The Center for Politics in partnership with the UVA Parents Fund Committee and UVA Office of Engagement will present a live, online celebration this Saturday, May 16, beginning from 11:30 a.m. to...

How Nancy Pelosi Got to Congress

An excerpt from Molly Ball's new biography of the Speaker of the House

Dear Readers: UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviewed Time national political correspondent Molly Ball about her new book, Pelosi, an intimate, fresh perspective on the most powerful woman in American political history. You can watch their conversation at at: https://livestream.com/tavco/mollyball. In an excerpt from the book below,...

The State of the States: The Governors

Vulnerable incumbents get a boost in the midst of crisis

Dear Readers: Join us tomorrow as UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviews Time national political correspondent Molly Ball about her new book, Pelosi, an intimate, fresh perspective on the most powerful woman in American political history. The conversation will take place from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m....

The State of the States: The Legislatures

Don’t expect much overall change even as many chambers are competitive

Dear Readers: We're pleased this week to welcome Chaz Nuttycombe to give an overview of state legislative elections in 2020. While we at the Crystal Ball do not do specific race ratings for state legislative races and chambers, we wanted to provide you with an update on these races, and...

The Senate: Looking Beyond the “Core Four”

Four races are set to decide the Senate, but they are not the only races that matter

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The focus on the evenly-matched battle for the Senate has in some ways narrowed to four GOP-held seats: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. -- Practically speaking, Democrats probably have to win all four, and the White House, to win the Senate. -- However,...

The Democrats’ House Polling Lead: Remarkably Steady

Generic ballot, money edge point to retained blue majority; seven rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency. -- Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help....

The Senate: Watch the Top of the Ticket

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Incumbent senators almost never lose reelection in presidential years when their party’s presidential candidate wins their state. -- Democrats need to net four seats to win an outright majority in the Senate and three seats to tie it. In the case of a Senate...

Wisconsin’s Supreme Court Race: Don’t Project it Forward to the Fall

Turnout dynamic likely to be bigger and different in the fall

Dear Readers: Today at 2 p.m., Kyle Kondik (Managing Editor of the Crystal Ball) will moderate a panel of four experts, “Voting in the Midst of a Pandemic.” He will be joined by Lee Goodman, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission; Myrna Pérez, Director of the Brennan Center's Voting...

Trump Struggling to Match Job Approval in Polling

But data as a whole suggest race remains highly competitive

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- There is a substantial and persistent difference among pollsters’ findings with respect to Donald Trump’s job approval and his percentage against Joe Biden. -- Biden’s ability to consolidate the anti-Trump vote will be decisive. -- Trump’s statewide job approval is almost exactly what one...

The Next Big Special Election: CA-25

Top-two primary results generally decent for Democrats, but a May special election held amidst uncertainty of the pandemic could give Republicans a chance to make up a little ground in California

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Democrats netted seven House seats in California in 2018, winning 46 of the megastate’s 53 seats. -- The state’s top-two primary election system can provide clues for the fall. With results almost entirely complete, none of the newly-elected Democrats appear to be in serious...