The Electoral College: Maine and Nebraska’s Crucial Battleground Votes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Nationalization has pushed urban and rural areas apart; Maine and Nebraska are no exceptions to this trend, and their unique electoral vote allocation systems are highlighting that division. -- The Omaha-based NE-2 supported Republicans in the past two presidential elections, but by decreasing margins,...

Republican Edge in Electoral College Tie Endures

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If no candidate gets to 270 Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives would pick the next president. -- The House has not had to pick a president in nearly two centuries. In the event of such a tiebreaking vote, each state’s U.S....

Markey vs. Kennedy: Welcome to the most unusual Senate primary in decades

Over the past quarter century, there hasn't been another Senate primary challenge quite like it

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) is facing a strong primary challenge from Rep. Joe Kennedy III (D, MA-4) in 2020. While challenges to entrenched incumbent senators aren’t an everyday occurrence, the Markey-Kennedy race is especially unusual in recent Senate history -- Most senators who attract...

The 2016 Electoral College Map: A Template for 2020

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In 2016, Hillary Clinton would have needed to flip 38 additional Electoral College votes to reach 270[1], thereby winning a majority in the Electoral College. -- Using 2016 presidential election results, we can map out the different paths that Clinton had to winning 270...

2019: The Year of Stability

Big events of the year, including impeachment, don’t materially change the odds in races for president, Congress

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away for the holidays next week. Our next issue will come out on Thursday, Jan. 2. We wish all of our readers Happy Holidays. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Impeachment is an unusual occurrence marked by usual partisanship. It...

Wisconsin: 2020’s Ground Zero

A closer look at the state that may once again decide the presidency; GOP narrowly favored in NJ-2 following Van Drew party switch

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A perpetual swing state, Wisconsin seems poised to play a pivotal role in next year’s presidential election. Milwaukee will be especially prominent as the host of the 2020 Democratic National Convention. -- With a special election in Wisconsin’s 7th District on the horizon, we...

The Democratic Vice Presidential Derby: Look Beyond the 2020 Contenders

History suggests broad guidelines for the kinds of candidates who will be considered

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The history of vice presidential selection suggests some overarching trends that will guide the eventual Democratic nominee’s selection. -- One piece of history stands out: Presidential nominees often, though not always, opt for a running mate who was not a candidate for the nomination....

The Democratic Race: Biden 2020 as Romney 2012

As one shaky frontrunner endures, we’re reminded of another from the recent past

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Biden’s endurance at the top of the Democratic race is reminiscent of Mitt Romney’s endurance in the 2012 Republican race. -- Despite considerable liabilities, Romney benefited -- and Biden benefits -- from splintered opposition and being the best fit for a significant bloc of...

Handicapping North Carolina’s New Districts

Democrats likely to net two seats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- With a new congressional map in place, Democrats seem poised to flip two seats in the Tar Heel State, one in the Raleigh area and another in the Greensboro area. -- Since his election in 2014, Rep. Mark Walker (R, NC-6) has quickly climbed...

2020 House: Assessing the Open Seats So Far

Openings won’t match the volume of 2018, but Democrats may once again benefit more than Republicans

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away next week. Our next issue will be released on Thursday, Dec. 5. We wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Of 28 open House seats, Republicans are defending 20 while Democrats are defending...

The Governors: Party Control Now Near Parity

GOP holds slim edge, but more Americans live under Democratic governors; crossover governors obscure stronger partisan alignment below the top ballot line

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Following the 2019 elections, Republicans retain a narrow 26-24 edge in governorships. -- But that’s a big shift from mid-2017, when Democrats held just 15. -- Gubernatorial races are likelier to defy federal partisanship than House and Senate races. The gubernatorial scorecard The Louisiana...

Shades of Alabama in Louisiana’s Gubernatorial Runoff

The similarities between the Deep South Democratic victories by John Bel Edwards and Doug Jones

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In his narrow reelection win on Saturday, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) replicated some of the voting patterns displayed in Sen. Doug Jones’ (D-AL) special election victory two years ago. -- Both Edwards and Jones won statewide races despite each carrying only a single...

Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- “Medicare for All” has been a major issue in the Democratic primary race. But it also came up a lot in the 2018 cycle. -- A regression analysis comparing the performance of 2018 Democratic House candidates shows that those who supported Medicare for All...