Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for August, 2018

A Labor Day Status Report

Plus, updates from Tuesday night

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about this election so far: Pluses […]

Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information

, Guest Columnists

Editor’s Note: In advance of the 2016 election, the Crystal Ball featured several political science forecasts of the presidential race. Released several months in advance of the election, these models included variables such as the incumbent’s approval rating, the economy, and other “fundamental” factors, and they generally did a good job of projecting a very […]

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs release new midterm election forecasting tools

New Political Atlas features expert race ratings, poll-based forecasts, and social media trends in advance of the 2018 election

(WASHINGTON, DC) — The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. Ipsos and the Center for Politics unveiled the […]

House Update: 12 Ratings Changes

For Republicans, Cohen and Manafort news exacts an opportunity cost

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Tuesday’s episode of real-life Law and Order involving two figures close to the president, Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort, may not directly hurt the GOP in the midterm. But given their current position, the Republicans need a little help, and Tuesday didn’t provide it. — We are making 12 […]

Exploring the Incumbency Advantage

U.S. House members’ traditional edge now appears marginal

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The incumbency advantage in U.S. House races, at least during this decade, has been relatively minor. — There’s no evidence that longer-serving incumbents build a larger incumbency advantage over time. This decade’s marginal incumbency edge It may be the oldest assumption in politics: Incumbents hold an advantage, and the […]

The Governors: Ratings Changes Abound

Democrats positioned to make gains on a map featuring lots of competition

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We have six gubernatorial ratings changes this week, as shown in Table 1 and described below. We also have two House ratings changes. — Democrats should net governorships, and more than just a few, but there’s a lot of uncertainty. To wit: Three of the ratings changes benefit Democrats, […]

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs partner to release new midterm election forecasting tools

Briefing will discuss outlook for the 2018 midterm and unveil new forecasting site

The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos invite members of the media to the launch of their new 2018 Political Atlas — an interactive tool providing unique data on the 2018 midterm elections — at the National Press Club, Tuesday, August 28, 10-11 a.m. Larry J. Sabato, Founder and Director of the UVA […]

New Poll: Majority of Americans Believe Race Relations Have Worsened under President Trump

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that a majority of Americans surveyed believe that race relations in the United States have gotten at least somewhat worse since President Donald Trump’s election. The poll also explores American racial attitudes at the one-year anniversary of a neo-Nazi […]

A Failure to Launch? Kansas’ Republican Gubernatorial Contest and the History of Incumbent Governor Primary Performance

If results hold, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) will be the narrowest incumbent primary loser in history

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As of Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) trailed Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) 40.6%-40.5% in Kansas’ gubernatorial primary. If Colyer’s deficit holds, it would mark the first primary loss for an incumbent governor in 2018. — If the final outcome is similar to the current vote, […]

The House: Ratings Changes in the Aftermath of Another Nail-Biter Special Election

GOP likely holds on in OH-12, but narrow result and other developments Tuesday reinforce positive Democratic trends

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A likely GOP win in a suburban Columbus House seat still represents a significant underperformance compared to usual Republican performances there. — Washington state’s top-two primary results so far should also be concerning to Republicans because they indicate three districts could be at risk in the fall. — We […]

Senate Observations: Placing 2018 in the Context of Upper Chamber Elections Since 1913

Democrats face a difficult map but stand to benefit from being the non-presidential party

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — From 1914 to 2016, presidential cycles featured a higher rate of straight-ticket outcomes than midterm elections, with 74% of presidential-Senate results going for the same party in presidential years. Midterm cycles showed more splits, with just 61% of presidential-Senate results won by the same party. In 21 of 25 […]