Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for September, 2018

The Senate: How 2018 sets up 2020

Keeping an eye on the next map in this cycle’s closing stretch

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The 2018 Senate races are important not just for determining the majority next January, but also for setting up both parties for the next election. — Republicans are defending almost double the seats that Democrats are defending in 2020, something of a reversal from this cycle, where Democrats are […]

New polls: Democrats in decent shape across the Frost Belt

Democratic Senate incumbents with big leads in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; very close races in Indiana Senate and Ohio governor; Scott Walker behind in Wisconsin

A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found Democrats ahead in a host of Senate and gubernatorial races in five mostly Midwest states that President Trump carried in 2016, in some cases by sizable margins. However, the polling did find two very close contests for Indiana Senate and Ohio governor. The […]

Ratings Changes: House and Governors

Affluent suburban seats looking dicier for GOP, but their numbers in the House are not all bad; Colorado, Michigan gubernatorial races shift to Democrats

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A slew of new House polling, mostly from the New York Times and Siena College, contains bright spots for both parties but also suggests a Democratic edge in the race for the House. — We have seven House ratings changes, all in favor of Democrats. — We also have […]

Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates

Four incumbents lost primaries in the House, one in gubernatorial contests, and none in the Senate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. — Just four members […]

New polls: Tight Senate races across the Sun Belt

Florida, Texas effectively tied; mixed bag for both parties in Arizona, Nevada

A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found close races in the key Senate battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. The polls, conducted online in English from Sept. 5 to 17 with roughly 2,000 respondents per state (narrowed down to about 1,000 likely voters per state), found the following results […]

Introduction: The 2018 Midterm Election Forecasts

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the 2018 midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives. So far, we’ve published models from Crystal Ball […]

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

, Guest Columnist

The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical aggregate data of partisan seat […]

Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models

, Guest Columnists

We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. With respect to the first step, the structural model, we employ the following equation: […]

Senate 2018: At Least for Now, the Elephant Endures

GOP maintains edge in race for upper chamber, but Democratic path to majority remains open

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In what is a somewhat unusual development, the incumbent party is not a clear underdog in any single Senate race with just two months left to go. But there are at least a couple of cases where the incumbent party is likely behind. — Republicans remain favored to hold […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Developments in Alaska’s gubernatorial race make it the GOP’s best pick-up target, three ratings changes in the House, and newly-appointed Sen. Jon Kyl becomes an unusual Senate two-timer

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the final day to file as […]