Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for October, 2018

New polls: Democrats lead marquee Florida races; Arizona Senate, Kansas governor effectively tied

The final pre-election Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics state-level polls of this election cycle shows Democratic candidates leading for the Sunshine State’s high-profile gubernatorial and Senate contests, while the open-seat Senate race in Arizona and the battle for the open Kansas governorship are effectively tied. These are the second Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics polls […]

The House Bellwethers

Some of the places that have most consistently voted for the majority party in the House may see their streaks broken if Democrats win

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The longest running House bellwether is a rural, conservative portion of Ohio. — If Democrats win the House, that streak and some other House bellwether streaks will likely be snapped. — The newest bellwethers might be in the Philadelphia suburbs, Northeast Pennsylvania, and Upstate New York. The places that […]

A dozen days to go: Ratings changes in gubernatorial, House races

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The battles for the state governorships are getting more volatile as Election Day nears. We are moving three races, Kansas, Oregon, and South Dakota, to Toss-up. — Republican odds of holding the Senate are as good as ever. — The playing field continues to expand in the House. […]

Forecasting the Democratic State Legislative Wavelet of 2018

, Guest Columnist

  Editor’s Note: After showcasing a state legislative assessment from experts at the National Conference of State Legislatures a couple of weeks ago, we’re pleased to offer another look at those races, this week from Carl Klarner. His forecast suggests that Democrats are positioned to pick up several state legislative chambers this year. If you’re […]

New polls: Nevada, Texas, Wisconsin

Republicans lead in Nevada, Democrats in Wisconsin; Cruz ahead in high-profile Texas Senate race

New Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls show Republicans ahead in key races in Nevada and Texas, while Democrats lead in the Wisconsin Senate race and both parties are locked in a close race for the Badger State’s governorship. These are the second polls that Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics has released of these states. […]

The Drive for 25: An updated seat-by-seat analysis of the House

Democrats closing in on majority but it's not a sure thing

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away. — Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor […]

New polls in the South: Georgia gubernatorial race tied; Tennessee Senate race close

Two new polls from Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics show close races in two high-profile, open-seat Southern contests: the Tennessee Senate race and Georgia gubernatorial race. In Tennessee, Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R, TN-7) leads former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) 47%-44%. Earlier in the campaign, this poll might have been taken as a good sign […]

Midterm Update: North Dakota goes to Leans Republican, giving the Republicans a clearer edge in the Senate

Dark red states going different directions in gubernatorial contests

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The North Dakota Senate race moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican, reinforcing what we’ve long described as a GOP edge in the race for the Senate. — The Democrats do have a path to the majority, but that path almost certainly involves winning at least one race we currently […]

The State Legislatures: More than 6,000 down-ballot races to determine control of states

Democrats poised to pick up seats and chambers but huge existing GOP majorities may help the Republicans maintain power in many places

, National Conference of State Legislatures

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — More than four of every five of the nation’s state legislative seats will be on the ballot this year. — The usual midterm presidential penalty extends to state legislative seats, where the presidential party loses an average of more than 400 state legislative seats each midterm. — On average, […]

New polls: Rauner in big trouble in Illinois; McCaskill, Hawley locked in tied Missouri Senate race

Missouri likely voters mixed on McCaskill’s no vote on Kavanaugh

Two new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls show Democrats well on their way to picking up a key gubernatorial seat, while both parties are locked in a tied race in one of the most pivotal Senate races in the country. In Illinois, businessman J.B Pritzker (D) leads Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) 50% to […]

Ratings Changes: House, Senate, and Governor

Democrats inching closer to magic number in House, poised to net several governorships; Senate battle murky as Kavanaugh effect uncertain

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  Editor’s Note: Before we begin this week, we just wanted to acknowledge our friend Geoffrey Skelley, our long-time Crystal Ball associate editor. Geoff started a new position this week with FiveThirtyEight. For nearly seven years, Geoffrey was an exceptionally valuable member of our team, and we will miss him tremendously. However, we are also […]