Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for November, 2018

House 2020: The new crossover districts

GOP path to retaking control likely goes through Trump-won districts now held by Democrats

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Following the 2018 election, it appears as though Republicans will only hold three districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Democrats are on track to hold 31 districts won by Donald Trump in 2016. — As Republicans plot a House comeback in 2020, most of their obvious targets […]

Cruz, Schiff highlight Center for Politics’ 20th annual American Democracy Conference

Thursday morning conference in Washington will be available via livestream

Today from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m., the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 20th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington D.C. The conference will feature Rep. Adam Schiff (D, CA-28), the likely next chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who just won a second term in a […]

2018 Senate: How the “Trump Ten” Races Compared to 2016

, Guest Columnist

  Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be off next week for Thanksgiving. We wish all of our readers a safe and happy holiday. After the holiday, please make a note to watch our 20th Annual American Democracy Conference on the morning of Thursday, Nov. 29. The conference will feature keynote speakers Rep. Adam Schiff […]

How’d we do?

Longstanding picks of a Democratic House, significant Democratic gubernatorial gains, and GOP Senate pan out

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

It took a lot of Krazy Glue, but we think we pieced the Crystal Ball back together, reassembling after 2016 shattered us and just about every other prediction group. As of this writing, early Wednesday afternoon, and with many uncalled House races remaining, the real-time seat projections from both the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight […]

Final picks for 2018

Democrats in House; Republicans in Senate; Democrats big in gubernatorial races; be on guard for upsets

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sorry, friends, but you are going to have to actually read this one. — Our full list of ratings changes is available here. Our best guesses for Tuesday The 2018 midterm has long been a study in contradictory signs. There is, for Republicans, the benefit of running at […]

Five days to go

Where we’re leaning in the House, Senate, and governors

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final picks are coming Monday. In the meantime, our longstanding overall assessment — Democrats favored in House, Republicans bigger favorites in Senate — remains in place. — Four ratings changes in the House. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating David Valadao (R, […]

How Republicans could hold the House

Higher turnout historically does not guide outcomes, and lack of 2016 GOP surge may limit 2018’s GOP decline

, Guest Columnists

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is no systematic relationship between the turnout rate and the Democratic Party’s (or the Republican Party’s) share of the two-party congressional vote. — Midterms often feature a decline for the presidential party after a surge in the House in the presidential year. But Republicans enjoyed no surge in […]