Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for December, 2018

How’d we do in 2018? A final update

Editor’s Note: Three quick notes this week: 1. Our First-Ever Name Our Post-Election Book Contest: We’re pleased to announce that our book looking back on the 2018 midterms and ahead to 2020 will come out in April 2019 and will be published by Rowman and Littlefield. The book is as yet-untitled, and that’s where you […]

Moderation in the Pursuit of Reelection May Not Help

Evidence from the 2018 House elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — District partisanship was by far the strongest determinant of the results of House elections in 2018, with Republican candidates typically running behind Donald Trump’s 2016 margins in all types of districts. — Whether incumbents under- or over-performed was unrelated to ideology. Moderate Republicans actually were more likely to be […]

Senate 2020: Republican exposure on paper, but not necessarily in practice

GOP defending a lot of turf, but much of it is dark red

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Of the 34 Senate races on the ballot in 2020, Republicans already control 22 of them while Democrats hold only 12. That represents something of a role reversal from 2018, when Democrats had to defend 26 of 35 seats being contested. — Still, Republicans start this cycle favored to […]

Governors 2019-2020: Democrats try to hold the line in red-state battles

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: Last Thursday morning, the University of Virginia Center for Politics held its 20th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington, D.C. To watch a replay of the conference, visit our website. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Following the 2018 election, Republicans now control 27 governorships to the Democrats’ 23, but a majority of […]

Trump to the rescue? Presidential campaigning and the 2018 U.S. Senate elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is not much evidence that President Trump’s rallies held for GOP Senate candidates had much of an effect on the results. — At the very least, two other factors were significantly more important: The normal partisan lean of the states where those contests took place and the advantage […]