Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 Governor’ Category

Ratings Changes: House and Governors

Affluent suburban seats looking dicier for GOP, but their numbers in the House are not all bad; Colorado, Michigan gubernatorial races shift to Democrats

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A slew of new House polling, mostly from the New York Times and Siena College, contains bright spots for both parties but also suggests a Democratic edge in the race for the House. — We have seven House ratings changes, all in favor of Democrats. — We also have […]

Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates

Four incumbents lost primaries in the House, one in gubernatorial contests, and none in the Senate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. — Just four members […]

New Polls: Tight Senate Races Across the Sun Belt

Florida, Texas effectively tied; mixed bag for both parties in Arizona, Nevada

A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found close races in the key Senate battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. The polls, conducted online in English from Sept. 5 to 17 with roughly 2,000 respondents per state (narrowed down to about 1,000 likely voters per state), found the following results […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Developments in Alaska’s gubernatorial race make it the GOP’s best pick-up target, three ratings changes in the House, and newly-appointed Sen. Jon Kyl becomes an unusual Senate two-timer

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the final day to file as […]

A Labor Day Status Report

Plus, updates from Tuesday night

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about this election so far: Pluses […]

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs Release New Midterm Election Forecasting Tools

New Political Atlas features expert race ratings, poll-based forecasts, and social media trends in advance of the 2018 election

(WASHINGTON, DC) — The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. Ipsos and the Center for Politics unveiled the […]

The Governors: Ratings Changes Abound

Democrats positioned to make gains on a map featuring lots of competition

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We have six gubernatorial ratings changes this week, as shown in Table 1 and described below. We also have two House ratings changes. — Democrats should net governorships, and more than just a few, but there’s a lot of uncertainty. To wit: Three of the ratings changes benefit Democrats, […]

A Failure to Launch? Kansas’ Republican Gubernatorial Contest and the History of Incumbent Governor Primary Performance

If results hold, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) will be the narrowest incumbent primary loser in history

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As of Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) trailed Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) 40.6%-40.5% in Kansas’ gubernatorial primary. If Colyer’s deficit holds, it would mark the first primary loss for an incumbent governor in 2018. — If the final outcome is similar to the current vote, […]

Three Republican Governors Face Increasingly Tough Election Contests

Ratings changes in Arizona, Illinois, and Iowa

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has three ratings changes in gubernatorial contests, all shifts in the Democrats’ direction: Arizona moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, Illinois moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Iowa moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. New ratings in Arizona, Illinois, and Iowa Arizona and […]

Registering by Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

, Senior Columnist

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In […]

Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats’ Direction

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin look more and more like Republican reaches

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests, both in Democrats’ direction. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey’s (D) reelection bid moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, while in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) race goes from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. — […]

What Happened in the June 12 Primary

Maine experiments with ranked-choice voting, the Virginia GOP backs Stewart for Senate, and Sanford loses renomination in South Carolina

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — Maine became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as instant-runoff voting) in a statewide election. But this was not the first time that a state used a form of ranked voting or preferential voting. In the early 1900s, a number of states […]

A Post-Memorial Day Status Report

Where things stand in the battles for Congress and the governorships

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE — Both Democrats and Republicans have about equal odds of winning the House majority. — Republicans remain clearly favored in the battle for Senate control. — Democrats should start 2019 with at least a few more net governorships than they hold now. Checking in on 2018’s big picture In a […]

Clues From the Upcoming California Primary

Plus: Updates from Tuesday night’s primaries

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The California primary on June 5 is the most important election in the battle for the House prior to November. — Democrats are hoping to avoid getting shut out of November by the state’s top-two primary in multiple districts, and the results should provide a rough guide for the […]

Mad as Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

With politics increasingly defined by feelings of anger toward the opposing party, trust in government is bound to decline unless something changes drastically

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment […]