Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2018 Senate’ Category

Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates

Four incumbents lost primaries in the House, one in gubernatorial contests, and none in the Senate

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. — Just four members […]

New Polls: Tight Senate Races Across the Sun Belt

Florida, Texas effectively tied; mixed bag for both parties in Arizona, Nevada

A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found close races in the key Senate battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. The polls, conducted online in English from Sept. 5 to 17 with roughly 2,000 respondents per state (narrowed down to about 1,000 likely voters per state), found the following results […]

Introduction: The 2018 Midterm Election Forecasts

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the 2018 midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives. So far, we’ve published models from Crystal Ball […]

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

, Guest Columnist

The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical aggregate data of partisan seat […]

Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models

, Guest Columnists

We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. With respect to the first step, the structural model, we employ the following equation: […]

Senate 2018: At Least for Now, the Elephant Endures

GOP maintains edge in race for upper chamber, but Democratic path to majority remains open

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In what is a somewhat unusual development, the incumbent party is not a clear underdog in any single Senate race with just two months left to go. But there are at least a couple of cases where the incumbent party is likely behind. — Republicans remain favored to hold […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Developments in Alaska’s gubernatorial race make it the GOP’s best pick-up target, three ratings changes in the House, and newly-appointed Sen. Jon Kyl becomes an unusual Senate two-timer

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the final day to file as […]

A Labor Day Status Report

Plus, updates from Tuesday night

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about this election so far: Pluses […]

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs Release New Midterm Election Forecasting Tools

New Political Atlas features expert race ratings, poll-based forecasts, and social media trends in advance of the 2018 election

(WASHINGTON, DC) — The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. Ipsos and the Center for Politics unveiled the […]

Senate Observations: Placing 2018 in the Context of Upper Chamber Elections Since 1913

Democrats face a difficult map but stand to benefit from being the non-presidential party

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — From 1914 to 2016, presidential cycles featured a higher rate of straight-ticket outcomes than midterm elections, with 74% of presidential-Senate results going for the same party in presidential years. Midterm cycles showed more splits, with just 61% of presidential-Senate results won by the same party. In 21 of 25 […]

Mountain State Manchin-Ations

The Democratic incumbent appears to be ahead in West Virginia’s Senate race, but Republicans remain overall favorites to control upper chamber

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is once again a small favorite in our ratings, moving from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in his race against state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). — That ratings change leaves six Toss-ups on the Crystal Ball Senate map: Democrats are defending seats held by incumbents […]

Registering by Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

, Senior Columnist

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In […]

The Uncertain Political Ramifications of Justice Kennedy’s Exit

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be off for the Fourth of July. We’ll be back on Thursday, July 12. An already turbulent national political environment was rocked by another major development Wednesday afternoon: Justice Anthony Kennedy, the closest thing there is to a swing vote on the Supreme Court, decided to retire. President Donald […]

Never Say Die Senate Candidates: Don Blankenship Lost His Primary but Plans to Run in November Anyway

If he does, the former coal magnate will be just the latest in a long line of Senate primary losers to run in a general election

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Although he lost in West Virginia’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Don Blankenship (R) is actively seeking to run in the general election as the Constitution Party’s nominee. His attempt to run in November will likely involve a legal challenge to “sore loser” election rules that prevent a losing […]

Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats’ Direction

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin look more and more like Republican reaches

, Associate Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests, both in Democrats’ direction. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey’s (D) reelection bid moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, while in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) race goes from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. — […]