Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2020 House’ Category

Notes on the State of Politics

Debate effects can fade; Trump may be running behind his approval; the NC-9 special; a Magnolia runoff?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The polling effects from the first debate largely wore off by the time the second round started. — In 2016, President Trump won some voters who otherwise did not like him, but there are some signs he isn’t benefiting from such a dynamic at the moment. — The NC-9 […]

The 2020 Congressional Elections: A Very Early Forecast

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A forecasting model based on postwar electoral history along with the president’s approval rating and the House generic ballot points to Democratic gains next fall. — The model’s projection won’t be finalized until late next summer and will be based on whatever the president’s approval and the House generic […]

2020 Redistricting: An Early Look

GOP retains edge, but perhaps not as sharp of one as it had following 2010

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Supreme Court’s recent decision to stay out of adjudicating gerrymandering doesn’t necessarily change anything because the court had never put limits on partisan redistricting in the first place. — Republicans are still slated to control the drawing of many more districts than Democrats following the 2020 census, although […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Farewell Ross Perot; Senate races on the fringe of the competitive map; the curious case of Justin Amash

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Ross Perot, who died earlier this week, provided something of a template for Donald Trump. He also was the best-performing third-party presidential candidate since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912. — They are not top-tier races, but there have been noteworthy Senate developments on the outer fringes of the competitive map […]

The Shadow of 1998

Revisiting and reassessing the GOP’s poor showing and the role of impeachment in the result

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The 1998 election has invariably come up a lot as House Democrats consider whether to impeach President Donald Trump. — That’s because Republicans had high expectations for that election but ended up flopping. — While impeachment probably did hurt the Republicans in some districts, it may have been that […]

House 2020: Incumbents Hardly Ever Lose Primaries

But that doesn’t mean every single one is safe

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Incumbent House members hardly ever lose primaries. In the post-World War II era, more than 98% of House members who have run for reelection have been renominated by their own parties. — However, even such a lofty renomination rate suggests that a few House members will lose primaries next […]

The Seats/Votes Relationship in the U.S. House 1972-2018

With big national win, Democrats in 2018 overcame GOP bias from earlier in decade

, Guest Columnist

Editor’s Note: This is an updated version of a story we previously published in June 2015 and January 2017 looking at the national House vote. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After adjusting the results for uncontested races, Democrats won the national House popular vote by about seven percentage points last fall. — The size of the […]

The Year of the Green Wave

How Democratic House fundraising spiked in 2018

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democratic newcomer candidates spent far more money than in previous cycles, while Republicans’ spending numbers stayed stagnant. — Female candidates enjoyed a cash advantage over male candidates, with an especially large gap among Democrats in open competitive seats. –There has been no observable advantage in the amount of cash […]

2020 Electoral College: Why the Republicans’ magic number is probably 269, not 270

Despite Democratic takeover, Republicans still hold an edge if the House has to pick the president

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is at least one plausible Electoral College scenario that produces a 269-269 tie, which would throw the presidential election to the House of Representatives elected in 2020. — If the House decides the presidency, you might think that Democrats would have the advantage, given their new majority. But […]

House 2020: Our initial ratings

Democratic overperformance in 2018 gives the majority party breathing room to start, but a GOP presidential win could put the House in play

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats start the cycle favored to hold the House majority, but a GOP presidential victory would open the door to Republicans restoring total control of Washington. — Overall, roughly equal numbers of Democratic (47) and Republican (46) districts begin the cycle listed in our ratings in the Toss-up, Leans, […]

Moderation in the Pursuit of Reelection May Not Help

Evidence from the 2018 House elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — District partisanship was by far the strongest determinant of the results of House elections in 2018, with Republican candidates typically running behind Donald Trump’s 2016 margins in all types of districts. — Whether incumbents under- or over-performed was unrelated to ideology. Moderate Republicans actually were more likely to be […]

House 2020: The new crossover districts

GOP path to retaking control likely goes through Trump-won districts now held by Democrats

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Following the 2018 election, it appears as though Republicans will only hold three districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Democrats are on track to hold 31 districts won by Donald Trump in 2016. — As Republicans plot a House comeback in 2020, most of their obvious targets […]