Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2020 President’ Category

Did Russian Interference Affect the 2016 Election Results?

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s recent testimony was a reminder that Russia attempted to influence the outcome of the 2016 election and very well may try to do so again in 2020. — This begs the question: Is there any evidence that Russian interference may have impacted the results, particularly […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Debate effects can fade; Trump may be running behind his approval; the NC-9 special; a Magnolia runoff?

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The polling effects from the first debate largely wore off by the time the second round started. — In 2016, President Trump won some voters who otherwise did not like him, but there are some signs he isn’t benefiting from such a dynamic at the moment. — The NC-9 […]

Notes on the State of Politics

Farewell Ross Perot; Senate races on the fringe of the competitive map; the curious case of Justin Amash

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Ross Perot, who died earlier this week, provided something of a template for Donald Trump. He also was the best-performing third-party presidential candidate since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912. — They are not top-tier races, but there have been noteworthy Senate developments on the outer fringes of the competitive map […]

2 Debates, 20 Candidates, 26 Hours

And some words, more than one, on all the participants

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  Editor’s note: The Crystal Ball will be away next week for Independence Day. We wish all of you a safe and enjoyable holiday. — The Editors   KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Do not necessarily assume that this first debate will dramatically reshape the Democratic primary race. — The biggest moment from either […]

Presidential Primary Debate History: Lessons for 2020

Candidate showdowns go back many decades, but have only recently become part of the nomination fabric

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  Editor’s Note: This is the first of two issues of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back after the conclusion of the second Democratic debate on Thursday night with an assessment of how the debates went. In the meantime, we present an updated history of modern presidential primary debates, which date back to […]

The Blue Wave excerpt: The decisive role of black voters in the 2020 Democratic primary

And why Booker and Harris can’t take black support for granted

, Guest Columnist

  Dear Readers: Our new book on the 2018 midterm elections, The Blue Wave: The 2018 Midterms and What They Mean for the 2020 Elections, is now available from Rowman and Littlefield. Edited by University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik, The Blue Wave features […]

The Shadow of 1998

Revisiting and reassessing the GOP’s poor showing and the role of impeachment in the result

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The 1998 election has invariably come up a lot as House Democrats consider whether to impeach President Donald Trump. — That’s because Republicans had high expectations for that election but ended up flopping. — While impeachment probably did hurt the Republicans in some districts, it may have been that […]

Extended term for Trump? No way, most Americans say

Large majority of Americans support respecting the peaceful transfer of power, according to new UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos poll

The lion’s share of Americans believes that respecting the results of elections and the peaceful transfer of power are essential elements of American democracy, according to a new national poll conducted by Ipsos in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics. By a 77%-16% margin, respondents did not think that the 2020 election […]

Notes on the State of the House

The Democrats' generic ballot edge endures, at least for now, but they shouldn’t get their hopes up on redistricting

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

  The Center for Politics is hiring a new coordinator of media relations who will help with the Crystal Ball and broader communications efforts at the Center. See here for a description of the position, information on how to apply, and who to contact if you have questions. — The Editors   KEY POINTS FROM […]

Assessing electability: Like nailing Jell-O to a wall

Democrats are trying to figure out who is the best to beat Trump. It’s a difficult task

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Trump’s victory in 2016 presents a great counter-argument to the idea that campaign professionals and pundits can confidently determine in advance who is electable to the presidency and who is not. — Many presidents beyond Trump have seemed unelectable at various points of their ultimately successful campaigns. — As […]

Biden Would be Arguably the Most Experienced New President Ever

He will run as the president who needs no training. But he may be the candidate who cannot be trained

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — If Joe Biden wins the presidency, he will bring with him nearly a half-century of elected officeholding experience, giving him perhaps the fullest resume of public service possessed by any new president ever. — It may be that Democrats are more open to a very experienced candidate than Republicans […]

“It’s easy to see how Trump can win reelection”

, Sabato's Crystal Ball

Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik published an opinion piece in the Washington Post on Tuesday arguing that despite the unconventional nature of Donald Trump’s presidency, his path to reelection may end up being not so different from those of previous Republican presidents: President Trump thrives on […]

Trump’s Primary Goal: Avoiding a New Hampshire Hiccup

First-in-the-nation primary can reveal the strength -- or weakness -- of presidential incumbents

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — President Trump remains a huge favorite to win renomination as the Republican presidential nominee, although he will have at least some opposition. — The New Hampshire primary has historically tested the strength of presidential incumbents. — In the primary’s modern history, incumbents who won easy victories went on to […]

The Democratic Nomination: It Doesn’t Have to be a Long Slog

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The size of the Democratic field, combined with the party’s proportional allocation of delegates and other factors, raises the possibility of a very long nomination process that may not be decided until the convention. — However, the voting calendar is so frontloaded that a nominee may emerge relatively early […]

Assessing Trump’s Chances: Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The author’s “time for change” presidential forecasting model has a successful track record of projecting presidential elections. In 2016, it showed Donald Trump as a favorite to win the national popular vote. Though Trump ultimately lost the popular vote while winning the Electoral College, the model presented an early […]