Sabatos Crystal Ball

Archive for the ‘2020 Senate’ Category

Tennessee Politics: From Boss Crump to Howard Baker to . . . Marsha Blackburn?

GOP position in Volunteer State strengthening as another open-seat Senate race looms

, Guest Columnist

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The nomination of now-Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) for Tennessee’s open-seat Senate race last year represented a rightward shift for state Republicans. — Blackburn’s clear victory over former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) last year means the GOP is well-positioned to hold another open Senate seat being contested next year. Tennessee’s […]

Senate 2020: Republican exposure on paper, but not necessarily in practice

GOP defending a lot of turf, but much of it is dark red

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Of the 34 Senate races on the ballot in 2020, Republicans already control 22 of them while Democrats hold only 12. That represents something of a role reversal from 2018, when Democrats had to defend 26 of 35 seats being contested. — Still, Republicans start this cycle favored to […]

Trump to the rescue? Presidential campaigning and the 2018 U.S. Senate elections

, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There is not much evidence that President Trump’s rallies held for GOP Senate candidates had much of an effect on the results. — At the very least, two other factors were significantly more important: The normal partisan lean of the states where those contests took place and the advantage […]

The Senate: How 2018 sets up 2020

Keeping an eye on the next map in this cycle’s closing stretch

, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The 2018 Senate races are important not just for determining the majority next January, but also for setting up both parties for the next election. — Republicans are defending almost double the seats that Democrats are defending in 2020, something of a reversal from this cycle, where Democrats are […]