Sabatos Crystal Ball

Tweets of the Week

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics October 22nd, 2009


The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here.

9:57 PM Oct 17th: You have to go all the way back to 1969 to find a year when POTUS party won both NJ and VA GOV races. Highly unlikely to happen in ’09 either.

9:58 PM Oct 17th: History isn’t determinative but it is suggestive. At the least history sets the odds.

10:00 PM Oct 17th: WaPo has strong endorsement of Deeds for Sunday–as expected by everyone. The key to edit influence is repetition and escalation, though.

10:02 PM Oct 17th: This is not D primary where small elite audience could be influenced by edit nod. The real question: Will there be WaPo Deeds edit drumbeat?

10:04 PM Oct 17th: In NJ GOV, editorial and other endorsements (Mayor Bloomberg?) are critical to Independent Daggett, who is cash poor.

1:31 PM Oct 20th: Reams of research show that “leaning partisans” vote almost identically to “hard partisans”. You MUST add hard and leans together.

1:34 PM Oct 20th: It is fashionable to claim to be “independent”, but voting behavior is the real test. The figures as publicized by WaPo and ABC are deceptive.

1:45 PM Oct 20th: Last VA GOV debate tonight. Deeds needs two miracles–a big debate win and a spark from Obama visit on 10/27 that boosts turnout.

3:42 PM Oct 20th: NJ GOV–New Rasmussen poll confirms others, tight as a tick, Corzine(D) 39%, Christie(R) 41%, Daggett(I) 11%. Watch for strategic voting.

3:47 PM Oct 20th: So much attention will be paid to the close NJ contest that many voters will fully grasp the landscape. They may vote for their 2nd choice.

3:51 PM Oct 20th: You just never know when something might break out of the blue. We know of nothing. But it’s why we all follow politics daily–no, hourly.