Sabatos Crystal Ball

Tweets of the Week

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics May 13th, 2010

The Crystal Ball’s Tweets of the Week is a look back at the highlights of the past week in politics in snippets of 140 characters or less. To get this analysis as soon as news breaks, follow University of Virginia Center for Politics Director, and Crystal Ball founder, Larry Sabato on Twitter by clicking here.

10:46 AM May 7th: A fascinating drama & dance is unfolding in London. Who will govern? How much stability? Can govt confront fiscal crisis or not? All TBD.

1:05 PM May 7th: UK used to have enormous voter turnouts, far above USA in prez yrs. But yesterday turnout was 65%. US turnout ’08 = 62%. Not much different.

4:20 PM May 8th: Remarkable: Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) has reportedly been unable to get 40% at the R convention to secure a place on the GOP primary ballot.

4:23 PM May 8th: The Tea Party & allies haven’t yet beaten a single D. But they’ve taken out two Rs–House candidate in NY-23 last Nov. plus Bennett now.

4:25 PM May 8th: Bennett can’t file as an Independent, only run as a write-in. Very tough to win that way. Utah grassroots will be strongly R in 2010.

4:28 PM May 8th: Tendency to over-generalize about Bennett defeat should be resisted. Utah’s convention process is highly unusual & UT GOP VERY conservative.

4:32 PM May 8th: Yes, Tea Party & allies deserve part credit for Sen.Scott Brown(R-MA) but a lot more was at work there. Plus, Brown ran & serves as moderate

10:47 AM May 10th: Major difference between Sotomayor & Kagan? Kagan comin up in election season. So both parties will play to their base.

10:51 AM May 10th: Dems need strong women’s vote in Nov (Obama got 56%). Record 3 women on S.Ct. may help. GOP base will see Obama pick as liberal, want oppo.

10:53 AM May 10th: Barring bombshells, confirmation is likely. Most ppl see ‘a liberal for a liberal’. If a conservative should leave Court, Katie bar door.

11:02 AM May 10th: Whether it’s Supreme Court or elective politics, increasingly a long record hurts a candidate. Stealth nominees are whatever they wish to be

11:04 AM May 10th: Specter-Sestak: If polls are right, Specter is in real primary trouble. We’ve long asserted “Specter fatigue” in PA. May not get to Nov?

11:59 AM May 10th: Best political story in world continues in UK. Election muddle leads PM Gordon Brown to accept voters’ verdict & resign–eventually.

3:13 PM May 11th: A little evidence Sarah Palin won’t run for POTUS. Rasmussen polled her home state, Alaska. Only 41% said they’d vote Palin ’12, 48% won’t.

3:17 PM May 11th: The inevitable happens: Brown is out as UK PM. Cameron & Tories are in. But everyone wants to see what LibDems got. How stable is this govt?

9:15 PM May 11th: Alan Mollohan, meet Bob Bennett & keep the door to the club of defeated incumbents open wide ’cause more are coming soon.Misery luvs company