The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

Replaces North Carolina as the seat likeliest to be No. 50 for Democrats; the House state of play

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m., just hours before the final presidential debate, for the latest edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the closing days of the campaign, email us at goodpolitics@virginia.edu. Additionally, an audio-only podcast...

Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away

Dear Readers: On today’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we’ll go in-depth on the race for the Senate. We’ll also be joined by a special guest: Grace Panetta of Business Insider. The election has already started, with millions of votes already cast: Grace is closely following...

With Just Weeks to Go, Trump is Not Making up Ground

Rating changes in Electoral College, Senate, Governor, and House

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato's Crystal Ball: America Votes. Vice presidential expert Joel K. Goldstein will be joining us to react to the VP debate. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the debate, specific races,...

Biden Lead Looks Firmer as Midwest Moves His Way

Challenger edges over 270; rating changes for Senate, House

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. We’ll be reacting to the first debate and going over the state of the race, including the many rating changes we made today (see below). We also will be hearing from Chris Jackson...

Presidential Expectations and the Race for the House

That the public is less confident in Biden’s chances than the polls could have a down-ballot impact; 14 House rating changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot. -- Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties. -- We are making...

Crystal Ball Video Series Continues Thursday

Join Larry J. Sabato and the Crystal Ball team tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 3) at 2 p.m. eastern for the next installment of our new Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series. We will be discussing the fallout from the two party conventions, the race for the House, and the state...

Excluding Undocumented Immigrants from the 2020 U.S. House Apportionment

Which states would lose seats and which states would gain seats?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Trump recently indicated that he wants the 2020 census reapportionment of House seats to exclude undocumented immigrants from the calculation. -- If undocumented immigrants are excluded, the 2020 reapportionment calculation will change, including changing the number of House seats allocated to the two...

House Primaries: A Little More Action This Year Than Usual

If only one more incumbent loses, 2020 will match 1980’s high watermark for a non-redistricting year

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As five sitting members of the House have already lost primaries -- and some states have yet to vote -- 2020 could see the most primary losers in a non-redistricting cycle since 1980. -- The circumstances of some of this year’s primary losers are...

House Rating Changes

Eight shifts, almost all benefiting Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing. -- At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall. -- There...

States of Play: Georgia

Once-dominant Democrats need formerly Republican suburbs to come through for them in 2020

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series -- in which we'll be taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election -- we look at Georgia, which Democrats are trying to win for the first time since 1992. Crystal Ball...

The House: Democratic Murmurings in the Texas Suburbs – and Elsewhere

11 rating changes, most in favor of Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf. -- Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could...

The Rise of Ranked-Choice Voting

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- 2020 has been a banner year for ranked-choice voting. -- Several Democratic primary and caucus contests used the system, which asks voters to rank their choice and forces winners to achieve majority support, albeit through votes from those who did not pick them first...

VA-5: Riggleman Loss Opens Door to a Competitive Race

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Rep. Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5) lost a bizarre, drive-through convention held over the weekend. -- We moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican as a result. Table 1: House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating VA-5 Open (Riggleman, R) Likely Republican...

Notes on the State of Politics

VP omissions; recapping Tuesday’s primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) seems to be rising in the Biden veepstakes. -- Late Wednesday, Jon Ossoff (D) apparently captured the Democratic nomination to face Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), thus avoiding a runoff. -- Primaries in South Carolina and West Virginia saw...